An inverted yield curve is an indicator of the possibility of a future recession, and also creates implications for investors and market participants. Currently, the U.S. government is in a sudden, and steeply inverted yield…
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August Market Commentary: Will a Month of Fresh Data Change the Fed’s Aggressive Stance?
July Recap and August Outlook July marked the best month for the markets since November 2020. What happened, after the rout of the first half? Some ideas: It’s a bear market rally sparked by better-than-expected…
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Inflation, the Fed, and Recession. It’s Not Linear.
The June CPI number came in at 9.1%. This is not only the second consecutive month that we’ve seen an increase – it was a whopper. Consensus expectations were for an 8.8% annualized increase in…
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Staying Safe Around Bears
The S&P 500 recently breached bear territory, which is largely agreed to be a market that has dropped 20% from a recent peak. It’s common to see some retracing. The “bear-market bounce” is real. However,…
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July Market Commentary: Will the Fed’s Rate Resolve Lead to Recession?
June Recap and July Outlook After a barely positive May, June saw the bear market return across indices. We ended up with the worst first half performance since 1970. A mid-month surprise 75 basis point…
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What Just Happened? The Fed Increases Velocity and Accepts Reality
The Federal Reserve raised the key short-term interest rate by 75 basis points in response to the release of the May headline CPI number, which increased to 8.6%. This marked the first 75 basis point…
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I Keep Hearing We’re Nearing a Recession. Are We Nearing a Recession?
There’s been more than a few news headlines recently claiming that we’re on the verge of an economic recession. For many business owners and investors the word recession is a lot like Voldemort. It’s so…
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